Daily Wisdom

January 17, 2011

Stimulus Spending And Job Growth: Update 19

Well, it's that time again (actually well past that time). Time to update Obama's stimulus-driven job creation results. For the month of December, there was a net gain of 103,000 jobs. That's bad news for President Obama, because it's once again lower than analysts had predicted. October and November's job figures were revised upwards slightly according to the latest data from the US Dept of Labor.

Barack Obama said his stimulus package would create approximately 4 million "new" jobs over two years. In order to create 4 million jobs in 24 months, the Obama administration would have had to create approximately 166,667 jobs per month to reach his target, assuming linear job growth. That scenario is shown as violet in the following graph.

I developed a curve showing what I thought might be a more "Likely" scenario -- plotted as light blue in the following graph. As you can see from the graph, the actual trend was somewhat worse than I had predicted -- plotted as yellow and red. The trend generally followed the trajectory I had originally envisioned until about May of this year (Month 15). Since then, job growth has been essentially anemic.

Instead of having to create 166,667 new jobs per month to reach his original target of 4 million new jobs, President Obama now needs to create 2,817,000 jobs per month -- in order to make up for the nearly 2 million jobs that were lost since the stimulus bill was signed.

According to US DOL statistics, the official unemployment rate dropped to 9.4%, because the number of people looking for work dropped from 15.1 million people to 14.5 million. In other words, 556,000 people dropped out of the work force. This is on top of the 2.6 million people who were already "marginally" attached to the work force because they did not actively seek work during the last month and therefore were not included in the numbers. And there were another 8.9 million people who were working part-time because their hours had been cut or because they could not find a full-time job.

However, I am pleased to report that I no longer remain unemployed. After 15 months of unemployment, I am once again a "productive" member of society. My prayers go out to those who are still looking for work.


At 1/18/2011 12:19 AM , Blogger camojack said...

Congratulations on bucking the trend and finding a job.

At 1/18/2011 7:21 AM , Blogger Nick - The Survival Guru said...

Sure glad that lame duck is on the count down to the end of term.

Up the Tea Party! And the demise of the socialists no matter what hairy reed (D-NV) says.

Tennessee is a beautiful State.
We're happy that you and your wife are so close to your daughter. My youngest daughter is 15 minutes away and my son is in Sacramento. It's My oldest daughter that is waaay up in Ideehoho.
Nicky j.

At 1/18/2011 7:39 AM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Gee, Hawkeye, don't you know we're in a jobless recovery? Forget the fact Democrats and the media howled in 2001 how "Bush's recession" (which was actually Clinton's recession that Bush inherited) was hurting the poor and that any new job created was the equivalent of a burger flipping job?

Get with it! The media and the "experts" they cite say things are looking on the up and up and Obama can't be held to the old ways of looking at "jobless recoveries" now that a Democrat is in the White House. That's real "progressivism" for you!

BTW, what's interesting about the latest unemployment figure (9.4%) is the media was crowing up the 140,000 jobs that were created while admitting in about paragraph 14 how something like 500,000+ Americans stopped looking for jobs during that same time. Proving once again figures don't lie but liars figure.

I don't think America can take another four years of unilateral Democratic rule.

Congrats on the new job. Good thing you don't live here in the People's Republic of Illinois where state income taxes just rose 70%! And the liberals here are ecstatic about the increase because they actually believe the Democratic politicians here are actually going to pay off Illinois' debt when the rest of us know it will be used as a political slush fund by the Donks to buy the next round of votes with the further expansion of their entitlement plantation. Illinois will only go deeper in debt as the result of the income tax increase compounded by the Donks' profligate spending habit. Tax dollars are like crack/cocaine to Democrat statists.


At 1/18/2011 10:53 AM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

so glad you connected!! let us know more about your new position!!
thanks for keeping us straight with the numbers game--I fprward your blog to our kids. Doris

At 1/18/2011 1:36 PM , Blogger Beerme said...

Nicely put as always!
Congrats on the new job (and state)!

At 1/18/2011 8:11 PM , Blogger Nick - The Survival Guru said...

Ever heard of Propsition 13 in California? it's time for the Illini to vote to roll back taxes to the 1998 level.

Someone ought to start a petition for same.
Don't just talk about it, start a grass roots orginisation in you community.
nicky j / amgus the Scot CA.

At 1/18/2011 8:29 PM , Blogger Hawkeye® said...

Thanks! I feel extraordinarily blessed, and not just a little guilty. There are those who have not been so fortunate as me. I have a number of friends and neighbors who have been out of work far longer than me. And I know people who are just now getting laid off. I hope the economy turns around and hiring starts improving, for their sakes.

Best regards...

At 1/18/2011 8:31 PM , Blogger Hawkeye® said...

Thanks! My wife and I are happy too.

(:D) God Bless you...

At 1/18/2011 8:39 PM , Blogger Hawkeye® said...

My condolences on your state of habitation and their tax increase. [BTW, I'm an Illinois native by birth.] I thought Chicago was bad when Richard J. Daley was mayor. Things haven't gotten any better since then. The Donks have run the place into the ground. With any luck, there will be ground swell of revolt to "throw the bums out."

(:D) Best regards...

At 1/18/2011 8:41 PM , Blogger Hawkeye® said...

Thanks! I'm doing good so far. The people here were very impressed by my resume and seem to have very high expectations of me. I just hope I can live up to them.

(:D) Best wishes...

At 1/18/2011 8:43 PM , Blogger Hawkeye® said...

Thanks! Hope all is well with you and yours.

(:D) Best regards...

At 1/20/2011 12:56 AM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Just a quick heads up. I am working with my disfunctiopnable laptop from my hospital bed.

Tomorrow, Thursday, I am going in for surgery to have a peacemaker put in.

I started losing heart beats the other day after a 5 day treatment for my MS. The doctors say it was not related but could still be caused from my MS.

My WiFi connection here at the hospital is poor but now that it is past midnight it seems to be better.

No time to alert Scrapplers but if you read this in the morning you can remember me in prayer.

Micheala (Ms RightWing)

At 1/20/2011 2:23 PM , Blogger Hawkeye® said...

Ms RW,
Prayers going up good lady. God bless and get better quick.

At 1/20/2011 3:05 PM , Blogger Nick - The Survival Guru said...

Dear Right Wing.
Your in my prayers too.

Lets all pray for her. Remember, "where two or more are gathered Jesus will be there." We don't have to be in the same State or room, just agree that the Lord will heal.
nicky j.


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