Stimulus Spending And Job Growth: Update 18
Well, it's that time again. Time to update Obama's stimulus-driven job creation results. For the month of November, there was a net gain of 39,000 jobs. That's bad news for President Obama, because it's a lot lower than analysts had predicted. September and October's job figures were revised upwards slightly according to the latest data from the US Dept of Labor.
Barack Obama said his stimulus package would create approximately 4 million "new" jobs over two years. In order to create 4 million jobs in 24 months, the Obama administration would have had to create approximately 166,667 jobs per month to reach his target, assuming linear job growth. That scenario is shown as violet in the following graph.
I developed a curve showing what I thought might be a more "Likely" scenario -- plotted as light blue in the following graph. As you can see from the graph, the actual trend was somewhat worse than I had predicted -- plotted as yellow and red. The trend generally followed the trajectory I had originally envisioned until about May of this year (Month 15). Since then, job growth has essentially flat-lined.
Instead of having to create 166,667 new jobs per month to reach his original target of 4 million new jobs, President Obama now needs to create 1,935,500 jobs per month -- in order to make up for the 2 million jobs that were lost since the stimulus bill was signed.
According to US DOL statistics, the official unemployment rate bumped up to be 9.8%, because there were 15.1 million unemployed people in the United States who were actively seeking work. But there were another 2.5 million people who were only "marginally" attached to the work force because they did not actively seek work during the last month and therefore were not included in the numbers. And there were another 9.0 million people who were working part-time because their hours had been cut or because they could't find a full-time job.
I am sorry to once again report that I continue to remain unemployed. However, there may be something positive brewing. I have an interview coming up next week. If it bears fruit, it will result in something of a small miracle. (More on that another time if I get the job.) I sense God's hand at work here, and I continue to covet your prayers.