Daily Wisdom

October 16, 2010

Stimulus Spending And Job Growth: Update 16

Well, it's that time again (actually past that time). Time to update Obama's stimulus-driven job creation results. For the month of September, there was a net loss of 95,000 jobs, which included the layoff of another 77,000 temporary census workers. That's surprising, because I had gotten the impression that the census was complete in August, and that all temporary employees were laid off last month. Obviously my last article on this subject (Update #15) was incorrect in this regard.

As you may remember, back in May (Update #12), I discounted the hiring of 411,000 temporary census workers because of the temporary nature of those jobs. Therefore, I was compelled to discount the layoffs of those workers in the following months. Going back and checking my records, I discounted 225,000 layoffs in June, 143,000 in July, and 114,000 in August, for a total of 482,000 layoffs (or 71,000 more than the original 411,000 hires). This month there were an additional 77,000 layoffs.

That can only mean one thing: that additional census workers were hired during the months of June through August, but which I did not account for and likewise did not discount. Therefore, I have decided that since I only discounted the original hiring of 411,000 census workers, I will only discount the layoffs of those same 411,000 workers. Therefore, I have gone back and added 71,000 job losses to the 60,000 jobs gained in August, for a net loss of 11,000 jobs.

I have also adjusted the July and August job figures downwards according to the latest data from the US Dept of Labor. There were 12,000 more job losses in July than originally reported, bringing the net job gain from 89,000 down to 77,000. In August there were an additional 3,000 jobs lost raising the total from 11,000 jobs lost (see above) to 14,000.

Barack Obama said his stimulus package would create approximately 4 million "new" jobs over two years. In order to create 4 million jobs in 24 months, the Obama administration would have had to create approximately 166,667 jobs per month to reach his target, assuming linear job growth. That scenario is shown as violet in the following graph.

I developed a curve showing what I thought might be a more "Likely" scenario -- plotted as light blue in the following graph. As you can see from the graph, the actual trend was somewhat worse than I had predicted -- plotted as yellow and red. However, the trend generally followed the trajectory I had originally envisioned until about May of this year (Month 15). Obama's "Summer of Recovery" was virtually non-existent. Since May, job growth has been essentially flat, and now appears to be headed on a downward trajectory.

Instead of having to create 166,667 new jobs per month to reach his original target of 4 million new jobs, President Obama now needs to create 1,223,600 jobs per month -- in order to make up for the 2 million jobs that were lost since the stimulus bill was signed.

According to US DOL statistics, the official unemployment rate continues to be 9.6%, because there are 14.8 million unemployed people in the United States who are actively seeking work. But there are another 2.5 million people who are only "marginally" attached to the work force because they did not seek work in the last month, and another 9.5 million people who are working part-time only because they can't find a full-time job.

I am sorry to once again report that I continue to remain unemployed. This coming Monday, October 18th will mark 13 months without a job. However, I am happy to report that I have seen more activity in the last 6 weeks than I have in the preceeding 11-1/2 months. I have had phone interviews, face-to-face interviews, or calls from headhunters for positions with a number of well-known companies including Coca-Cola, Wrigley's, Johnson & Johnson, AT&T and Alcoa, as well as some other not so well-known companies. I continue to covet your prayers.


At 10/16/2010 7:17 PM , Blogger Nick - The Survival Guru said...

havsavlI had a job.
I had a job as an assistant leasing manager,@ $1000. a week.
This is when I was at the Senior Building where I met Barbara my wonderful wife of 3years and 9 months.
The owners decide to cut expenses so we lost our bigest account,(95%) opg the monthly income. I just now put in for un-employment and they have said yes. Wow! that's enoughg to make the house payment or fun trips for awhile.

So. Am I looking for work? No because in Califonia your an older worker if you over 29! Ha!

Nicky angus the scot.

At 10/16/2010 7:52 PM , Anonymous Conserve-a-tip said...

Not only did we get promised those jobs, we also got promised that if that stimulus passed, unemployment would not rise any higher than 8%. Between that and the president admitting this week that there really isn't any such thing as "shovel ready" jobs, I'd say that with his batting average and pitching ability, he sure doesn't want to look into baseball as HIS new job when he gets laid off!!!

At 10/16/2010 7:57 PM , Blogger Hawkeye® said...

OK Old Man! God Bless. BTW, if 29 is considered an "older worker", then I am twice as old as an older worker.

(:D) Best regards...

At 10/16/2010 8:00 PM , Blogger Hawkeye® said...

Amen to that! With a throwing arm like that, he couldn't compete with a girls softball league.

(:D) Best regards...

At 10/16/2010 10:03 PM , Blogger Barb said...

The shovel ready jobs are at the Cemetary,where we greedy retirees will soon take our rightful places,under the Tombstones.
I'm "doubling down" on the prayers so you guys get good jobs .
The problem with being unemployed is you can't "enjoy" the time off .It's not vacation and you feel guilty if you have fun.God bless you both.

At 10/17/2010 11:37 AM , Blogger Hawkeye® said...

Thanks so much for your prayers! I need them.

(:D) Best regards...

At 10/17/2010 11:47 AM , Blogger Beerme said...

I see things coming along in the next few months. Of course it's through no assistance from the Federal government but rather in spite of its meddling. There are even signs that manufacturing in Michigan is on the uptick! I'm hopeful (and prayerful) that you'll get some good news soon!

At 10/17/2010 4:31 PM , Blogger Hawkeye® said...

Thanks so much. I appreciate it.

(:D) Best regards...

At 10/17/2010 5:48 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

I solemnly swear, if I hear this administration lie one more time about all the jobs they've created without taking full responsibility for the millions of jobs their neo-socialist policies have destroyed ... well, I'm not simply going to pound sand at their arrogant impudence.

The actual unemployment rate is somewhere around 17.1% and I'm sure after the elections we'll see the "official" unemployment rate go up a few points not that it's not in the interest of the national socialist media to front for the Democratic Party and their Chosen One.

These posturing Democrat hacks could not have engaged in policies more destructive of job growth, yet the insanity of liberal Democratic voters continue as they buck themselves up to vote for the same ol' same ol' expecting the outcome to be any different than it has since the Donks took over Congress with the 2006 elections. Isn't that the definition of insanity, doing the same thing over and over again while expecting a different result? This time the American voters need to open their eyes, take a look at the real world around them, and then vote for some REAL change - not the unicorn/rainbow/butterfly kind of "change" promised by the Democratic Pied Pipers.

As I've stated before, this country might be able to survive the arrogant incompetence of congressional Democrats and Barry Obama, but what America can't survive are the braindead, anti-conservative bigots who put these clowns in office in the first place.


At 10/17/2010 5:53 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

The "shovel ready" meme engaged in by Obama was yet another LIE this administration told the America people and it appears that Mr. Chose One himself recently agreed with this assessment now that he admits there really weren't "shovel ready" jobs as he earlier claimed.

Given the present economic disaster and how America's seasoned citizens were so thoroughly shafted by liberal Democrats' ObamaCare scam and its well-cloaked death panel bureaucracy that looms on the horizon, the only thing close to shovel ready in this country are senior citizens themselves!


At 10/18/2010 1:23 AM , Blogger camojack said...


Seriously though, there isn't a snowball's chance in Hell of those rosy predictions coming to pass...

At 10/18/2010 8:06 AM , Blogger Hawkeye® said...

The average voter got "snookered" in 2008. They were tired of Bush. There was nothing inspiring about John McCain. Electing a black man would be historic. And Obama posed as a centrist. Intelligent voters could see what was coming. Unfortunately, some of those "intelligent" voters were Liberals and welcomed the kind of "change" they knew Obama would bring.

Obama can say that he inherited a mess, but it's his mess now. He's been in office for almost 19 months now. And as you say, his policies have been a total disaster. It would have been better if he had done nothing at all.

(:X) Best regards...

At 10/18/2010 8:12 AM , Blogger Hawkeye® said...

Are you sure? C'mon. I think he can do it. Obama is Superman, dontcha know. He's just been taking his time so that when he creates 2 million jobs per month it will be totally awesome!

(:D) Best regards...

At 10/20/2010 9:34 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well, as always a little late. I decided to go back into the hospital for fun and folly (right). Just got out yesterday and I am so far behind--geeeshh you would think I was pulling down a paycheck.

The news commentary folkies always makes my laugh when they bring out the monthly employment news.

"A surprising downturn." is generally the start of their diatribe. What the heck is a surprising number in a house full of bean counters.

I'm impressed with the people who are looking over your resume. Hope someone grabs onto soon.

As always God bless.

At 10/21/2010 7:51 AM , Blogger Hawkeye® said...

Sorry to hear you were in the hospital again. You are in my thoughts and prayers.

God Bless...

At 10/31/2010 2:11 PM , Anonymous Reality Check said...


At 10/31/2010 2:19 PM , Anonymous Reality Check said...

The actual unemployment rate is somewhere around 17.1% and I'm sure after the elections we'll see the "official" unemployment rate go up a few points not that it's not in the interest of the national socialist media to front for the Democratic Party and their Chosen One.

But during the years of Emptiness under Dubya, the actual unemployment was even HIGHER!

Don't forget, we had jobs losses of 760,000 a month under Dub, followed by his use of public monies to bail out capitalism!

Anything we have gone through during the first 2 years of Obama is nothing compared to the 8 years of GW Bush!

We MUST put an end to the quasi-scientific Republican economic theories before they finally destroy the middle-class of America.

At 10/31/2010 4:39 PM , Blogger Hawkeye® said...

Reality Check,
You said: "But during the years of Emptiness under Dubya, the actual unemployment was even HIGHER!"

Higher than 17.1%? Are you out of your mind? You must be kidding.

Since I started working in 1973, I have never been unemployed until Barack Obama came into office. Give me a break and go back to your homework.

At 11/01/2010 12:49 PM , Blogger AmericanVet said...

Go Hawkeye get job!

At 11/01/2010 1:03 PM , Blogger Hawkeye® said...

Is that an order?


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