Daily Wisdom

September 07, 2010

Stimulus Spending And Job Growth: Update 15

Well, it's that time again. Time to update Obama's stimulus-driven job creation results. Let's look at the latest picture. In August, there was a net loss of 54,000 jobs, but this job loss number was due in large part to the layoff of the last 114,000 temporary census workers. Again, since I did not include the temporary census workers in earlier job increases, I cannot then include the losses here. Therefore, in the graph below, I have discounted the census job losses and allowed for a net gain of 60,000 jobs. The unemployment rate bumped up to 9.6%.

Barack Obama said his stimulus package would create approximately 4 million "new" jobs over two years. In order to create 4 million jobs in 24 months, the Obama administration would have had to create approximately 166,667 jobs per month to reach his target, assuming linear job growth. That scenario is shown as violet in the following graph.

I developed a curve showing what I thought might be a more "Likely" scenario -- plotted as light blue in the following graph. As you can see from the graph, the actual trend was somewhat worse than I had predicted -- plotted as yellow and red. However, the trend has generally followed the trajectory I had originally envisioned. Obama's "Summer of Recovery" has been virtually non-existent. Since May of this year (Month 15), job growth has been anemic at best.


I have revised the June and July job figures upwards according to the latest data from the US Dept of Labor. Now, instead of having to create 166,667 new jobs per month to reach his original target of 4 million new jobs, President Obama needs to create 989,500 jobs per month -- in order to make up for the 2 million jobs that were lost since the stimulus bill was signed.

I am sorry to once again report that I was not one of those fortunate 60,000 who found work in August. However, I am happy to report that I have seen more activity in the last 2 weeks than I have in the last 11-1/2 months. Yes, I will soon be unemployed for a year. It's amazing how quickly that time went by. Perhaps it will not be much longer now.

13 Comments:

At 9/07/2010 1:11 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

in the meantime you have been doing good work. God bless you.

 
At 9/07/2010 5:32 PM , Blogger Beerme said...

Thanks for the update! And good luck!

 
At 9/07/2010 5:38 PM , Blogger Hawkeye® said...

Anonymous,
Thank you!

(:D) Best regards...

 
At 9/07/2010 5:39 PM , Blogger Hawkeye® said...

Beerme,
Thanks for your support.

(:D) Best regards...

 
At 9/07/2010 7:00 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Does anyone else get the funny feeling that the Donk's "trickle up poverty" and "the redistribution of wealth" theories aren't exactly working out very well?

Well, it does look like the pitchforks are coming out this November after some American rubes woke up to the reality that Mr. Obama is indeed a socialist, and a very incompetent one at that, and he and the Congressional Democrats LIED to us about how they were going to help out the average American with their brilliant ideas.

Hankmeister

 
At 9/07/2010 11:37 PM , Anonymous conserve-a-tip said...

Hawkeye, it IS hard to believe that it has been that long. I wish that you could come our way. Our state seems to be doing a whole lot better than others. We actually have jobs.

You did an amazing job on the graph. It was good being able to see what has actually been happening. Between unemployment and absolutely insane spending, it is just hard to wrap your brain around it all. Thanks for the good work.
Mary Beth

 
At 9/08/2010 3:40 AM , Blogger Uncle Possum said...

Gosh, and I'm still working on my appeal to the death panel for the denial of health-care benefits!

Miz Possum was ordered by the state to go for an interview today for a job she doesn't want, at our local DFACS office. A front-page article in last week's local fishwrapper [North Georgia News.com] trumpeted that despite earlier lies that our county's unemployment rate is "lower than average" at 8.6%, the actual, adjusted figure is closer to the regional 15%. The community service agency where she works presently is overrun with people humbled with shame and joblessness, asking for handouts from the food pantry she administers.

A quick look at the DFACS filing system during her job interview showed it to be literally knee-deep in unread files and applications for food stamps. The traditional "safety net" is unraveling as I write this. The DFACS employee Miz P. might replace is currently being paid with "stimulus" money that will run out at the end of the month.

I'm beginning to turn blue from holding my breath, waiting for the "stimulus" lump sum Bobama promised in lieu of the standard COLA every federal retiree, Social Security and SSI recipient has received for the last 30 years. The only jobs the government can "create" is clerical grunt work, to cope with the mass of unemployment and food stamp claims being filed.

The public campgrounds all over the state are filled with "Bamavilles" of families who have lost their homes and are living in tents or their cars.

Maybe when America starts looking like Biafra or Ethiopia, with starving people dropping dead in the streets, people will sit up, take notice, and do something about the ideological insanity that is destroying us.

Then, again, we may be reduced to a Monty Python movie, where filth-covered peasants are trundling carts through the streets, calling "Bring out your dead!"

And King Bobama will skip by, followed by a Pelosi-looking lackey with two coconut shells to provide the illusion of a horse, or prosperity, or something.

Good luck and God be with ye on the job search.

 
At 9/08/2010 3:54 AM , Blogger Uncle Possum said...

The job interview for Miz P. I referred to in the post above was obviously yesterday.

How hard it is to tell one day from another when stress beckons the return of The Insomnia Monster!

The post I deleted was a duplicate of the original, not any raging profanity at the seeming hoplessness of current events. I save the salty language for the privacy of The Possum Den.

 
At 9/08/2010 11:29 AM , Blogger camojack said...

I think tracking the (lack of) Obama's projected progress is an exercise in futility at this point...

 
At 9/08/2010 5:43 PM , Blogger Hawkeye® said...

Hank,
The Liberals never have any ideas that seem to work. I was going to say "Dems", but then I remembered that there have been some Dems who were a bit more conservative than the current lot. JFK actually had a tax cut and wanted to strengthen the military (rather than cut it).

(:D) Best regards...

 
At 9/08/2010 5:45 PM , Blogger Hawkeye® said...

C-A-T,
Yes, time flies when you're... unemployed. (sigh)

Thanks for your kind words.

(:D) Best regards...

 
At 9/08/2010 9:15 PM , Blogger Hawkeye® said...

Possum,
Thanks for your support. Good luck with your death panel dealings, and Miz P's job situation as well. I had my interview today in Maryland. It went pretty well I think, but I found out I'm competing against 4 or 5 other candidates, so who knows. God's will be done.

(:D) Best regards...

 
At 9/08/2010 9:22 PM , Blogger Hawkeye® said...

Camo,
Futility in terms of expecting anything good to come of it? ...yes, I agree. At this point, I'm just keeping track of it to see how close my projection comes (or how BADLY Obama screws it up).

Actually, I can't wait until 23 months are up so I can say, "With only one month to go, now Obama has to create 4 million jobs in one month to reach his target of 4 million new jobs."

(:D) Best regards...

 

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