Stimulus Spending And Job Growth: Update 14
Well, it's that time again. Time to update Obama's stimulus-driven job creation results. Let's look at the latest picture. In July, there was a net loss of 131,000 jobs, but this job loss number was due in large part to the layoff of 143,000 temporary census workers. Again, since I did not include the temporary census workers in May's job increases, I cannot then include the losses here. Therefore, in the graph below, I have discounted the census job losses and allowed for a net gain of 12,000 jobs. The unemployment rate remained at 9.5%.
Barack Obama said his stimulus package would create approximately 4 million "new" jobs over two years. In order to create 4 million jobs in 24 months, the Obama administration would have had to create approximately 166,667 jobs per month to reach his target, assuming linear job growth. That scenario is shown as violet in the following graph.
I developed a curve showing what I thought might be a more "Likely" scenario -- plotted as light blue in the following graph. As you can see from the graph, the actual trend of job losses was somewhat worse than I had predicted -- plotted as yellow and red. However, the trend generally followed the trajectory I had originally envisioned until about May of this year (Month 15). Since then, job growth seems to have flat-lined.
I have revised the May and June job figures downwards according to the latest data from the US Dept of Labor. Now, instead of having to create 166,667 new jobs per month to reach his original target of 4 million new jobs, President Obama now needs to create 874,285 jobs per month -- in order to make up for the more than 2 million jobs that were lost since the stimulus bill was signed.
I am sorry to once again report that I was not one of those fortunate 12,000 who found work in July. It is now beginning to appear that not only has Obama's Stimulus Package failed, but that his policies are making things worse. The "Likely" scenario I projected was based on a natural economic recovery which should have occurred regardless of the stimulus. If the job numbers continue on their present slow growth trend (or get worse), then it can only suggest that Obama's policies are to blame.