Daily Wisdom

July 03, 2010

Stimulus Spending And Job Growth: Update 13

Well, it's that time again. Time to update Obama's stimulus-driven job creation results. Let's look at the latest picture. In June, there was a net loss of 125,000 jobs, but this job loss number was due primarily to the layoff of 225,000 temporary census workers. However, since I did not include the temporary census workers in last month's job increases, I cannot then include them here. Therefore, in the graph below, I have discounted the census job losses and allowed for a net gain of 100,000 jobs. The unemployment rate dropped from 9.7% to 9.5% because about 650,000 people dropped out of the work force.

Barack Obama said his stimulus package would create approximately 4 million "new" jobs over two years. In order to create 4 million jobs in 24 months, the Obama administration would have had to create approximately 166,667 jobs per month to reach his target, assuming linear job growth. That scenario is shown as violet in the following graph.

I developed a curve showing what I thought might be a more "Likely" scenario -- plotted as light blue in the following graph. As you can see from the graph, the actual trend of job losses was somewhat worse than I had predicted -- plotted as yellow and red. However, the trend continues to generally follow the trajectory I had originally envisioned.

I have revised the April and May job figures according to the latest data from the US Dept of Labor. Now, instead of having to create 166,667 new jobs per month to reach his original target of 4 million new jobs, President Obama now needs to create 754,375 jobs per month -- in order to make up for the more than 2 million jobs that were lost since the stimulus bill was signed.

I am sorry to once again report that I was not one of those fortunate 100,000 who found work in June. I should also point out that, in my opinion, the current trend has had little or nothing to do with Obama's Stimulus Package. Rather, it was the result of a natural economic recovery which would have occurred anyway. I would go even further and suggest that the policies of this President and this Congress have only acted to slow down the recovery.


At 7/03/2010 5:23 PM , Anonymous R.A.M. said...

The ONLY thing stimulated by the "stimulus" was that tingle that went up Chrissy Matthews leg!

Click my name for a "just dessert".

That guy looks every bit as big a fool as Biden even without the "gift" from the Eagle!

At 7/03/2010 5:27 PM , Anonymous R.A.M. said...

PS: I will be praying you find work soon Jim!

Click my name again.

Sorry, I couldn't help it! lol

At 7/04/2010 9:53 AM , Blogger Beerme said...

The only thing missing from this wrong-headed approach to fiscal policy is a catchy acronym. Then he could be just like his failed 20's, 30's and 60's predecessors.

At 7/04/2010 10:04 AM , Blogger Hawkeye® said...

Too funny! Thanks for sharing. And thanks for your prayers. I truly appreciate it.

(:D) Best regards...

At 7/04/2010 10:08 AM , Blogger Hawkeye® said...

Yeah, we had the "Square Deal", the "New Deal", and the "Great Society". Now we have the "Raw Deal".

(:D) Best regards...

At 7/05/2010 11:33 AM , Blogger Just call me Shelly said...

I often wish to be in the "full time employment," department once again so I could pull down some decent wages, but oh my, a woman of my age with mere journalism and chef skills--a bad omen indeed.

I do believe I would be eating at the Obama Soup Kitchen on the corner of Despair and No Hope.

I guess my crappy disability check can look good, well sometimes. For now I eat at the corner grocery. Sooner or later this administration will do away with disabled people.

Jim, I hope you find work, but don't come to Ohio looking for it. We have not a governor, Republican or Democrat who has tried to break the gridlock of new employment in decades.

We lose a thousand good jobs then they rave in Columbus when they get 50 rotten jobs. Say what you will about Ohio, there are a lot of good blue collar people who would love to work at a decent wage. Of course, the unions would love to steal that good wage.

I have no idea how to cure the mess.

On a side note, I am pleased to say that I have found a new gig, writing and designing a newsletter for a local car club. No pay, but I am learning a new desk top publishing program and writing again. You know, getting the cobwebs out of my brain once more.

I have donated some of my photo work to a local charity and it brought some good $$, so I guess that is my 2 cents worth of stimulation.

Hang in there. I hope (real hope) that Obama will walk out of DC with his tail between his legs before we crash.

At 7/05/2010 12:15 PM , Blogger Hawkeye® said...

Thanks for your best wishes. There are jobs out there, but I seem to have problems: a) qualifying for them, or b) attracting the interest of employers.

A lot of employers are now requiring much more than they ever did in the past. Various certifications, a Professional Engineers license, and sometimes even a Masters Degree. For Facilities & Maintenance management... can you imagine?

They seem to want very specific experience: in their industry, with certain types of equipment, with certain types of software, in certain types of operating environments, using certain types of practices that require specific training, etc.

And if I were to go back to school, there's no guarantee that I would be any more successful at landing a job. My brother went to school to become a Pharmacist's Assistant. He got his license and he can't find a job. He even offered to be an intern for no salary, just to get some experience... and still no takers.

I've applied to nearly 200 places now. The first 70 resumes I sent out were to companies in my industry. No luck. I tried applying all over the country. No luck. I tried focusing on NJ. No luck.

I will take your advice and "hang in there". Same to you too. And as always,

(:D) Best regards...

At 7/05/2010 2:53 PM , Blogger Nick - The Survival Guru said...

It used to be, don't tell them you were over qualified on a job interview. Now they want you to be that way.

The only thing that might work now-a-days is: I'm a socialist, a democrat, an athiest, a union supporter an illegal free-loader or have all what they want.

Now that I think about it to have all that, is their way of making sure your in the country legally or that you press every button for english!

This is the new way to deny a living to Christians. look for a company that is Christian owned, if possible.

Nicky J.

At 7/05/2010 2:56 PM , Blogger Nick - The Survival Guru said...

And yes your in my prayers as are "All" believers.
Nicky J.

At 7/05/2010 8:05 PM , Blogger Hawkeye® said...

Thanks. I cherish your prayers. You are a good man.

(:D) Best regards...

At 7/05/2010 8:41 PM , Blogger radar said...

Wow, still no job? It is really tough out there. I am basically self employed and so no unemployment for me, I either make money or don't. In this economy that ain't easy. Debbie and I will pray for you to get your job this month and once in a while toss in a prayer that my business will grow?

Now I will go watch all your videos!

At 7/05/2010 10:51 PM , Blogger Hawkeye® said...

Thanks. I covet your prayers. Will reply in kind that your business grows.

(:D) Best regards...

At 7/05/2010 11:56 PM , Blogger radar said...

Ironically my word verification is "outch"


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