Stimulus Spending And Job Growth: Update 4
In June I wrote an article called "Stimulus Spending And Job Growth". In the article, I pointed out that Barack Obama said his stimulus package would create approximately 4 million "new jobs" over two years. He also said the unemployment rate would not exceed 8%. In order to create 4 million jobs in 24 months, the Obama administration would have had to create approximately 166,667 jobs per month to reach this target, assuming linear job growth. That scenario is shown as violet in the following graph.
As of June, when I wrote the article, the trend in job growth was actually negative. So I developed a curve showing what I thought might be a more "Likely" scenario -- plotted as light blue in the following graph. As you can see from the graph, the actual trend of job losses is worse than I had predicted -- plotted as yellow and red -- and the unemployment rate is at 9.8%. I have revised August's job losses from 216,000 to 201,000 according to the latest published figures. The number of jobs lost for the month of September was a higher than expected 263,000 which means that Obama's goal of 4 million new jobs in 24 months keeps getting more difficult to attain...
Instead of having to create 166,667 new jobs per month, which he originally needed to reach his target, he now needs to create 395,882 jobs per month -- in order to make up for the 2,730,000 jobs that have been lost since the stimulus bill was signed.
Ironically, I am included in the September job loss figures. I was laid off from my job on September 18th. I have worked almost continuously for 34½ years having collected only one week of unemployment during that entire time. Don't get me wrong, I'm not bragging. I am truly grateful that the Lord has blessed me with continuous employment. I am glad that I was able to contribute to the unemployment compensation of others. I merely point this out to highlight the failed policies of President Obama, and that now it's hitting pretty close to home. Gee thanks pal! Good work... NOT!