Don't Underestimate Osama bin Laden

An audio tape purported to be the voice of Osama bin Laden was broadcast yesterday by Al-Jazeera, the most watched Arabic TV station in the Middle East. American authorities contend that the tape is authentic, the voice is indeed Osama bin Laden's, and they suggest that it was probably made some time in December 2005. The transcript of the tape can be read Here.

Most of bin Laden's comments are the typical tripe of an anti-Administration blowhard, and carry about as much weight as that of an ordinary Looney Left-Wing Liberal in the U.S. Senate. On more than one occasion, bin Laden refers to "public opinion polls", suggesting that he believes in them more than the average American. He says that the Bush administration is "targeting the news media, which carry some facts about the real situation." Can you imagine? OBL defending the good name of the Lamestream Media? Gimme a break!

He blasts "Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, and Wolfowitz"... just like the New York Times. He refers to "atrocities and crimes in the prisons of Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo"... just like the New York Times. He equates "the repressive measures of the US army" with the crimes of Saddam Hussein... just like the New York Times. He alleges torture measures by US military such as the use of "chemical acids" and "electric drills... on their heads until death" (which is pure fantasy and even goes beyond anything the NYT would suggest). He says that Bush "has no plan to achieve victory"... just like the New York Times. He mocks Bush for his "announcement from an aircraft carrier on the end of major operations"... just like the New York Times. OK, so now we know that OBL has a subscription to the New York Times. The NYT should just check all of the addresses of their subscribers (especially in Pakistan) and give them to the CIA for follow-up.

Then, out of nowhere, bin Laden offers a truce. "In this truce, both parties will enjoy security and stability and we will build Iraq and Afghanistan, which were destroyed by the war." Yeah right! We just go away and they will fix everything. Sure! What an idiot. Why don't you just turn yourself in OBL, and WE will fix everything.

Then he says the obvious... (paraphrased) 'either we will win this war or you will win'. Like... DUH! He then goes on, "If we win it, it means your defeat and disgrace forever. If you win it, you should read the history. We are a nation that does not tolerate injustice and seek revenge forever." He then goes on to say that (if we win), they will seek revenge until "your minds are exhausted and your lives become miserable". In other words, we win and you lose... OR... we lose temporarily, but we will win in the end. Yada, yada, yada. Big talk from a guy in a cave!

But then, he says something that scares the heck out of me. He says, "The swimmer in the sea does not fear rain." In the context of the paragraph, this sentence seems to fit right in. But if you look at this sentence in relation to everything else bin Laden says, it sounds almost like a code phrase right out of WWII. During WWII, the British used to send out similar code phrases over the radio to Allied spies and the resistance movements in Europe. There were examples of this in the movie "The Longest Day".

In the past, Osama bin Laden has used video tapes and audio tapes to signal an attack to his "sleeper cells" around the world. I just pray that I am reading way too much into this one phrase and that nothing will come of it. Nevertheless, I can only say one thing... Don't underestimate Osama bin Laden. He is a scorpion that still may have some sting left in him.

UPDATE: On 'Special Report with Brit Hume' last night (21 Jan 2006), Mort Kondracke said nearly the same thing I have here. He said the bulk of bin Laden's tape sounded like a Maureen Dowd column in the NYT.