Daily Wisdom

January 20, 2006

Don't Underestimate Osama bin Laden

An audio tape purported to be the voice of Osama bin Laden was broadcast yesterday by Al-Jazeera, the most watched Arabic TV station in the Middle East. American authorities contend that the tape is authentic, the voice is indeed Osama bin Laden's, and they suggest that it was probably made some time in December 2005. The transcript of the tape can be read Here.

Most of bin Laden's comments are the typical tripe of an anti-Administration blowhard, and carry about as much weight as that of an ordinary Looney Left-Wing Liberal in the U.S. Senate. On more than one occasion, bin Laden refers to "public opinion polls", suggesting that he believes in them more than the average American. He says that the Bush administration is "targeting the news media, which carry some facts about the real situation." Can you imagine? OBL defending the good name of the Lamestream Media? Gimme a break!

He blasts "Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, and Wolfowitz"... just like the New York Times. He refers to "atrocities and crimes in the prisons of Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo"... just like the New York Times. He equates "the repressive measures of the US army" with the crimes of Saddam Hussein... just like the New York Times. He alleges torture measures by US military such as the use of "chemical acids" and "electric drills... on their heads until death" (which is pure fantasy and even goes beyond anything the NYT would suggest). He says that Bush "has no plan to achieve victory"... just like the New York Times. He mocks Bush for his "announcement from an aircraft carrier on the end of major operations"... just like the New York Times. OK, so now we know that OBL has a subscription to the New York Times. The NYT should just check all of the addresses of their subscribers (especially in Pakistan) and give them to the CIA for follow-up.

Then, out of nowhere, bin Laden offers a truce. "In this truce, both parties will enjoy security and stability and we will build Iraq and Afghanistan, which were destroyed by the war." Yeah right! We just go away and they will fix everything. Sure! What an idiot. Why don't you just turn yourself in OBL, and WE will fix everything.

Then he says the obvious... (paraphrased) 'either we will win this war or you will win'. Like... DUH! He then goes on, "If we win it, it means your defeat and disgrace forever. If you win it, you should read the history. We are a nation that does not tolerate injustice and seek revenge forever." He then goes on to say that (if we win), they will seek revenge until "your minds are exhausted and your lives become miserable". In other words, we win and you lose... OR... we lose temporarily, but we will win in the end. Yada, yada, yada. Big talk from a guy in a cave!

But then, he says something that scares the heck out of me. He says, "The swimmer in the sea does not fear rain." In the context of the paragraph, this sentence seems to fit right in. But if you look at this sentence in relation to everything else bin Laden says, it sounds almost like a code phrase right out of WWII. During WWII, the British used to send out similar code phrases over the radio to Allied spies and the resistance movements in Europe. There were examples of this in the movie "The Longest Day".

In the past, Osama bin Laden has used video tapes and audio tapes to signal an attack to his "sleeper cells" around the world. I just pray that I am reading way too much into this one phrase and that nothing will come of it. Nevertheless, I can only say one thing... Don't underestimate Osama bin Laden. He is a scorpion that still may have some sting left in him.

UPDATE: On 'Special Report with Brit Hume' last night (21 Jan 2006), Mort Kondracke said nearly the same thing I have here. He said the bulk of bin Laden's tape sounded like a Maureen Dowd column in the NYT.


At 1/21/2006 10:19 AM , Anonymous Maggie said...

Good Morning Hawkeye,
Great analysis of the tape.No! I don't think you are making too much of the possible hidden message.

At 1/21/2006 10:31 AM , Blogger Nylecoj said...

Subscriber addresses, hmm, well you never know, as you point out so well his talking pooints are mighty familiar.
Good job.

At 1/21/2006 10:34 AM , Blogger Hawkeye® said...

I sent you a few e-mails about the freeze-ups on your computer. Let me know if you got them, OK?


At 1/21/2006 12:47 PM , Anonymous Shelly said...

Hawkeye, you and me both! Let's just trust that today's Scripture applies.

At 1/21/2006 1:44 PM , Blogger Hawkeye® said...

Yeah, if OBL is living in a cave somewhere, I'm thinking his delivery address would be pretty obvious since it is probably a latitude and longitude vs. a normal street address.


At 1/21/2006 1:45 PM , Blogger Hawkeye® said...


At 1/21/2006 7:01 PM , Blogger cranky old fart said...

Geez, all this importance laid on the latest OBL "BOO" tape, and yet in the preceding post's comments you call him a mere figure head, and his continued freedom of little importance compared to the capture of his never ending supply of No. 2s.

At 1/21/2006 10:44 PM , Blogger Timmer said...

Hawkeye -

You're right...does sound rather like a code of some kind. I might be REALLY worried if he had a nuclear submarine or two at his disposal.

I took his overall verbiage to be more conciliatory than before - whether he is pandering to the left (his allies, it would seem) or in fact has lost power, there is a sort of desparation to his message.

I hope he is in LOTS of pain, in a very nasty, unsanitary place (which accounts for 90% of the middle east). ;-)

At 1/22/2006 8:38 AM , Anonymous Maggie said...

Is SF off again.I couldn't connect last night or this morning.

At 1/22/2006 11:59 AM , Blogger Hawkeye® said...

If you read my analysis, I said that most of his comments sound like they came from DNC talking points as spouted by the NYT. I'm just saying that ONE phrase sounded like it might be a code of some kind... the rest of it was BS.

At 1/22/2006 12:02 PM , Blogger Hawkeye® said...

I'm with ya. You normally don't offer a truce unless you're in big trouble. But that may be a ruse... who knows. I hope we get him soon.


At 1/22/2006 12:03 PM , Blogger Hawkeye® said...

I just checked SF and it is up. Maybe Scott was tinkering again.

At 1/22/2006 8:34 PM , Anonymous onlineanalyst said...

Bin Laden is a figurehead, one who is media savvy, who plays the game of psy-ops very well, and who manipulates the dupes of our own media equally well. He plays to what he perceives as weaknesses in our resolve. He and his followers think in long-term.

The "unhinged" in our populace see these "timely" releases of tapes as Rovian tricks to resurrect national security concerns to serve Bush's political purposes. These leftwing nuts haven't the slightest clue that our security has been the driving force throughout this administration.

These tapes are somewhat generic. Where they recorded sometime in December? The message seems to indicate such. Does that mean that Bin Laden is dead? I think that his plans were large enough to speak to his follower beyond the grave. Whether dead or alive, Bin Laden is the symbol of a rallying point of hatred against the West, Christianity (the Crusaders), and the Judaism.

Are there codes in these messages? No doubt. Does he charm the pants off the journalists and politicos whom he quotes? You bet!

At 1/22/2006 10:18 PM , Blogger cranky old fart said...


The only ones "charmed" my this B.S. are the "boo" lovers like you and the WH, who use them to justify the continuing erosion of civil rights and to charm the other Bushco sheep.

At 1/23/2006 1:27 AM , Blogger camojack said...

You don't have to subscribe to the NYT to read their stuff...

At 1/23/2006 8:10 AM , Blogger Hawkeye® said...

Or, you could be like me and try to avoid reading their stuff.

At 1/23/2006 1:34 PM , Anonymous Shelly said...

cranky old fart, Bin Laden is just reading Democratic talking points, Hawkeye made that clear. That never charms Bush supporters, it just makes them laugh.

At 1/25/2006 9:10 AM , Blogger albertparsons said...

i've heard that, from a linguistic perspective, it seems that it wasn't written in arabic but was translated from a different language. His phrase: "The swimmer in the sea does not fear rain" interested me, too. I found a similar Turkish proverb: "A man who is drenched does not fear rain"
(source: http://www.ottomansouvenir.com/Turkish_Proverbs/Turkish_Proverbs_3.htm)

At 1/26/2006 7:53 AM , Blogger Hawkeye® said...

Thanks for stopping by and sharing some interesting background info. I hope OBL was merely waxing philosophic for a moment.


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